Thursday, May 10, 2018

CAUSES AND EFFECTS--Read and try to understand a blogger's excellent Middle East analysis. My Comment is below it.

A blogger on my Facebook page opined about Trump's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement formulated through years of diplomacy by the Obama administration.  I thought it was one of the most cogent analysis on a very opaque subject I had read.  The sinking of the Iran nuclear agreement is catastrophic in view of this analysis.  I post it below:

"When the Bush White House decided to topple Saddam Hussein the strongman leader of Iraq, it enabled the Iraqi Shia majority to seize control.  It kicked Sunnis, the former ruling elite of Iraq, under the bus.  The US had no plan as to what to do with them so the defeated Iraq Sunnis, with Hussein dead, ran for their lives with their weapons intact.  Panicked by this, the Sunni States financed and enabled the rise of ISIS, which quickly escaped their control and became an existential threat to its creators. The Sunni effort to replace the Allawite rulers of Syria ended up driving Assad into the arms of Russia and Iran, to the point where Lebanese, Hezbollah and Iranian troops are fighting on his behalf.

Turkey's Erdogan, seeing an opportunity in Syria's chaos to destroy the Kurds on its border, is effectively now allied with Syria and Iran.  Saudi efforts too to maintain Sunni rule in Yemen have reduced the country to smoldering ruins and have brought it into direct confrontation with Iran.

A wave of elections has handed Hezbollah control of Lebanon and a member of the anti-American Shia Badr Brigade is poised to become Iraq's President.  Seeing an immense Shia block composed of Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq take shape, and watching it abetted by nations like Quatar, the Saudis and Israel, along with the Gulf Emirates,  an alliance of them was formed to influence the US into taking sides in a centuries-old ethno-religious dispute.

They have succeeded beyond their expectations. The stage is now set for a potentially catastrophic conflagration that will set the region afire, will likely bring the military superpowers into direct confrontation, and could potentially spark a nuclear war not to mention crash the world economy, which will certainly happen if Mideast oil is cut off."

My Comment;
How many think Trump understands one minuscule part of this Middle East mess which the US created by its feckless foreign Middle East policy the War in Iraq destabilizing the region, raise your hand.  I see no hands and for good reason.  The Middle East morass takes the minds of policy experts in Middle East history and contemporary politics to understand the meaning of it all or even a part of it.  The odds Trump understands any of that on a scale of 1 to 100 are ZERO.  His presidency, to quote him, is a disaster, and we are all held hostage to it.

Trump welcomes American detainees freed from North Korea--a good thing .... BUT

I am not going to be a hypocrite. The freeing of the prisoners from N. Korea is a good thing. I will give credit where it is due. This is a good thing, Mr. Trump, and the attempt at creating a diplomatic amelioration between N. Korea and the South with the US facilitating it is nothing short of miraculous if it happens. It is too early to tell how solid this attempt will be but the prisoners are home and that is surely good. Trump's attempt at improving the relations between North Korea and the South could have a positive impact on other nations in the region and, indeed, the world.  It could tamp down the nuclear war threat on the Korean peninsula and even its occurrence as far as the US mainland if Kim Jong-un improves his nuclear proficiency which he appeared to be doing.

This does not, however, eliminate the hundreds of poisonous things that began with Donald J. Trump's ride down the escalator to declare Mexicans, crossing our border to escape a dastardly life, criminals and rapists. Trump has sullied the positive relationship between the races both here and around the world.  He has made a place for neo Nazis to spew their hate and said nothing of right wing terrorist violence more prolific here than Islamic terrorist attacks by far. You, Mr. Trump, have done many unAmerican things, including and most especially the alleged collusion with Russia which I believe has occurred.  In my mind that is treason.  Trump has advocated for many inhumane polices -- creating a wall between nations, ruined DACA separating Hispanic parents from their children, deported thousands who committed no crime but were merely looking for a better life.  He has tried to exact his pound of racist flesh on Obama by overruling much good the Obama administration did.  Trump lies and he lies all the time impugning our free press as well as his own Department of Justice.  Trump has implemented more destructive mandates including but not limited to pulling away from the Iran nuclear agreement as well as denying climate change by pulling away from the climate change agreement signed by all nations in the world except the US.  These are existential threats to our planet.

The corruption in this administration shocks the conscience of most of our nation. It increases our allies' incredulity about the reliability and the sanity of our country.  These things have disastrous consequences not only for the US and its allies but for the world entire. 

What, Mr. Trump, you do, if successful, between N. Korea and the South will be great and I applaud you for it but the evil you spawn by the rest of the ugly inhumane and profane things you do will obviate the greatness of thawing the icy relations between North Korea and the South but creating another flood that kills.

Still RESIST!

NOT ANYMORE

  I wrote this last week and for the most part sat on it because I did not want my writing to imply anything against Israel. As stated agai...